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I have focused on this article for two simple reasons. First it looks bad. It is pessimistic, and thus, during the current state of affairs in our country's economy, it is very powerful. Due to the over-weighting power bad news has during bad times, I feel that every story of impending doom needs to be held in check long enough to be analyzed logically with our emotions on the sideline. Second, this is simply a forecast, from an economist and an academic. What is a forecast?
Am I saying this economist and professor is wrong? No, because I cannot tell the future. And I am not saying we should not plan for the future. However, I am leery of every forecast that comes about in the news. It even says in the article that this forecast is based on the assumption that the previous forecast may be wrong. Making irrational and emotional spontaneous decisions based simply on ever-changing guesses at the future has been and shall always be a recipe for disaster, especially in the world of investing.
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